A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both authors two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
